Will Trump Be Good For Retail?

President-Elect Donald Trump’s candidacy has left precisely zero room for indifference. Safely assuming you’ve had a pulse and a brain for the past 18 months, you’ve undoubtedly formed opinions about the man. It’s also safe to assume that many of those opinions are derived from his remarks on social and humanitarian issues. For the purposes of this column, forgive me for setting those aside. Let’s take an objective look at two of his proposals—immigration and tax reform—that might directly impact the business of retail.

Some economists—most notably those at Morgan Stanley— have warned that if a President Trump manages to swing a deportation plan that eradicates 5 million or so undocumented immigrants from our country, we’ll see measurable decline in low-end consumer demand and low-wage labor availability. Yes, that eventuality could spell trouble for small retail businesses and quick serve restaurants. But, it’s important here to track the continuum of Trump’s deportation rhetoric. That’s challenging given that candidates are such masterful shape shifters. But, Morgan Stanley’s cautionary note was written in September. More recently, Trump has softened his tough talk on deportation. He’s backed away from his earlier hardline stance and appears to be focusing his deportation plans on the criminal element. From the logistical, political, and humanitarian perspectives, even Trump knows that mass deportation is unfeasible. For this reason, the economic impact of deportation is low on my list of concerns. I suspect the hyperbolical immigration reform rhetoric about “the wall” and mass deportation is to Trump what Guantanamo Bay was to President Obama. It simply won’t happen.